Garbage Time!

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Still no news on the relationship front - everything's good.  I think the new rule is that as long as I have a "dating" blog open my dating life will be uninteresting so everyone is just going to have to suffer as I pontificate on life, politics, sports, gambling, hookers, cocaine...ok...maybe not the last few, but we'll see...

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Not blogging about this...












Ok, this posting will be a garbage blog.  I've been thinking people.  It's a dangerous concept, but so far I've only had a few nosebleeds so we'll see how long I can keep this up (so to speak).

First, gambling!  Oh yeah, didn't think I would go there did ya? 


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Leonard Washington is my idol...


Yes, I gamble.  It's become an interesting hobby of mine.  As a quick note it's perfectly legal as long as you declare your winnings to the IRS. 

The only problem is that I'm a cheap bastard so I only lay down about $25 a week on bets.  Also, I want the most gain for my $25 so I usually put money down on 12 team parlays in college football.  Why college football?  Well, take a look at the Florida/Miami game last week.  Coach Urban Meyer made the decision to kick an unnecessary field goal late in the game.  The reason is that if he runs up the score now the style points will help in the BCS so you have an increased likelihood of teams covering the spread.  The NFL, for example, settles things on the field and is less likely to keep starters in late in a blowout, etc, etc.  That being said, I won't rule out an NFL bet or two as a part of my parlay so long as I'm fairly confident in the pick.   

I generally consider my $25 lost every time I lay down a bet as the purpose is only to make the games more interesting and test my sports knowledge, but a curious thing happened last year - I won.  I won around $13,000 last year the week Michigan lost to App. State.  Despite the long odds I now have that unfortunate feeling that I can do it again.  Last year I was happy if I got 10 of 12 picks with the spread picked correctly, but now if I don't win upwards of $10,000 it's a bit of a disappointment as I know I can do it.  I've actually picked some games pretty well this year (although I think a better test of a sports guy is knowing what not to pick - like not trusting Michigan last year against a Division I-AA team).  Truth be told, I've picked some turkeys too.  

In any case, through my admittedly cheap ass form of gambling I've come up with some general rules that I'm following (and refining this as the year goes on) about what I see with college football (and maybe some pro) this year.

Week 1/2 - Risk US$ 20.00 to win US$ 50117.59  (This didn't happen)

Wisconsin (-21) over Marshall

Score: Wisconsin 51, Marshall 14

It's important to note that a lot of these kinds of games - early season "tune up" games can end up biting you in the ass (California/Maryland was the game keeping me from riches this week), but if you can find a series of these that you feel confident about it can be pretty good for you.  Later in the season you'll get a better feel for the teams, but the teams playing will generally be closer in ability - making your job to pick a series of games correctly with the spread a lot tougher. 

This is an example of a pick right in the wheelhouse of an early season game.  First of all, Marshall hasn't been good since the late 90s when everyone was infatuated with the MAC for a couple of seasons.  They generally get out recruited in-state by West Virginia and for the purposes of a non-conference game against Wisconsin can generally be considered to be the sacrificial lamb.  On the other end of the pick is Wisconsin, a top-15 team that is coached well, has a stable program, and stumbles less in the early season than other teams.  Their MO this year as well as last year was not putting teams away early.  However, in the early season that keeps your spread down (many times the spread will be jacked up to -27 or more for a game like this) and just tells me that Wisconsin is a good fourth quarter team - they have the conditioning to wear teams down and run up the score late. 

So the combination of all of this - a stable team I trust (i.e. - I didn't trust Michigan to cover the spread last year against App. State - I did expect them to win big, but the spread was -31 if I remember correctly), a sucky opponent (sorry Marshall), and a favorable spread made this a pretty good pick.


Now for a couple of bad picks all following the same rule (hey, it was week 1 folks).

U Connecticut (-7) over Temple - result UConn 12, Temple 9

Wake Forest (-8) over Ol' Miss - result Wake Forest 30, Ol' Miss 28

There are a few things I thought I had going for me here.  First, Temple has the MO of not being successful against most high school teams while UConn had the rep of being an up and comer in a resurgent Big East (oh how a week can make a difference).  So I thought I could trust UConn with a favorable spread in a short road trip to Philly to play Temple.  The result of the game was a comedy of errors that results in a narrow win for UConn.  I picked the game correctly, but the Huskies didn't cover the spread so I lost the entire bet (single tear). 

For the second game I thought Wake Forest made some noise in the ACC last year, the spread was favorable, and Ol' Miss, while being an SEC team (generally considered a very strong conference), was definitely a second or third-tier SEC team and was part of the Houston Nutt/Bobby Petrino coaching shuffle.  Basically I thought Ol' Miss would play like Arkansas this year (two very close games against Division I-AA, FCS, teams) and Wake Forest would continue to be good.  Again, I ended up picking the game correctly, but the spread was off for me. 

So, what's the lesson learned?  In my experience there are a couple of conferences/series of teams you just can't trust in any given year.  Call it a down year, whatever, but teams and conferences that should be great just end up underperforming.  Maybe they win, maybe they lose, but they never cover the spread for you.  In previous years the Pac-10 was considered a weak conference, the Big 12 North for many years you couldn't trust, the Big 10 every few years, etc, etc.  This year it looks like that might be the ACC and the Big East.  This can work for you if you like picking underdogs to knock off these teams where you can't trust the favorites, but once you get into conference play upsets are more likely especially from mid-tier teams trying to knock off top teams having off years. 



To make a long story short I called a couple more spreads wrong for various reasons, but here are rules I've learned from weeks 1 and 2...

1.) Rebuilding teams will be wildcards - I had Nebraska covering a large spread at home over San Jose State.  I probably bet with my heart on this one as I loved Nebraska as a kid, but they missed the spread by a few points because they didn't get the game started until the fourth quarter (I know what I said about Wisconsin, but there's a difference between wearing a team down and having that show up in the fourth quarter and just not playing until the fourth quarter). 

2.) Pay attention to teams playing offense - I had to learn this lesson twice with Auburn.  They switched to a spread offense this year and it's ugly right now - a 3 - 2 win this week over Mississippi State.  Again, they won their games, but they can't get their offense going so they haven't covered the spread two weeks in a row.  Auburn is dead to me...

3.) Don't get greedy - I needed a team to make this a true 12 team parlay.  I could have gone with 11 (and still lost, but, hey, I thought my other picks were soild), but I wanted that extra pick so I went with Northwestern by a touchdown over Duke.  Duke has won approximatly two games since the Lincoln Administration and they came last year...wait...I just checked, Duke won one game last year.  Northwestern is one of those teams that sucks in almost any other occurance, but can be counted on to beat Duke.  However, I didn't really research this one or I would have discovered the one win Duke had last year was over Northwestern (way to go dumbass).  Northwestern did win, but only by four.  I didn't need this pick, and if I did I could have done the work on it - research is part of the hobby.

Week 3

Week 3 did not make me even more of a thousand-aire, but my picks were a bit better vis-a-vis the Big East and ACC.  I did have to learn the lesson of not jumping on bandwagons too early.  Picks for East Carolina, Oregon, and Cal all backfired this week. 


This week was also the Iowa/Iowa State game.  This game has been very interesting from the year before I went to college when Iowa State started to go to some bowls and actually be competitive.  Iowa has had some up and down years in that time too, but three of the four years I went to college we beat them.  During those years if you talked to an Iowa fan they always downplayed the game after they lost.  This year, however, they won (it's been the home team's game the last three years) and the Iowa fans at the Peanut Farm went crazy.  They care about little old alma mater - at least when they win.

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It was a good game for all involved - this was a little pre-game present for a Hawkeye friend of mine... 

Iowa State played better statistically (more first downs, yards, etc), but Iowa was able to get it in the end-zone while Iowa State was awful in the red zone (three missed field goals, etc).  I think Iowa State definitely got the moral victory at least here in Alaska as I, the lone Cyclone fan in the house (we can hack in the lower-48 and don't have to run away to the circus that is Alaska) outwitted at least 10 Hawkeye fans in attendance with several cutting comments that will no doubt damage their self-esteem for years to come.  Iowa State may have a loss that will last for a year (we'll beat them again next year), but those fans will have injuries that will dig at them. 

In any case I think I might be Obama-esq on this one - you got to give those Hawkeye fans something to cling to so they can keep going year to year.  After all, it's gotta be demoralizing having to either run to Alaska to get some semblance of success or pumping Iowa State grad's gas for a career.  It also must be tough looking at a diploma written in crayon all day at that gas-station.  So, we'll give them a win every once in awhile (6 - 4 Cyclones over the last 10 years) so they can keep on pumping - so to speak. 

Just kidding - I love all my Iowa bros out there.  Here's to good years for both teams. And I should comment that despite all my pithy comment thorough the whole game all the Iowa fans were very nice to me in true state of Iowa fashion. 

Next up will be the Cleveland Browns vs. the hated Pittsburgh Steelers.  This has the makings of an epic fail in terms of my teams and sports this weekend, but we'll see. 


I think I'm going to steal Peter King's idea (writer for SI) and put out the 10 Things I Think Right Now...

1.) Iowa as a state is super awesome - where else could you have a cutting rivalry with two teams from great conference (Big 10 and Big 12), have people apoligize for their comments, and then be friends when it's all over - ready to do it all again next year?  You'll never find people like Iowans out there anywhere else - even for midwestern folks they're considered overly nice.

2.) The political environment is bothering me even more than usual this year - this was detailed on my last blog.  On the crazy conservative side we have the whole "Hussein" Obama thing, a general inability to interact with the press, and the standard fear-based politics rather than giving me a reason to vote FOR someone.  On the crazy, DailyKos reading, liberal side we have fear-mongering on an epic scale against Sarah Palin.  I was reading a "progressive" blog earlier today and they were proud of how they were "tearing down" Sarah Palin.  We have Charlie Gibson, Charlie Gibson for heaven sakes, actively showing disdain for Ms. Palin.  Being on the other side of this for a few years (working for campaigns, political stuff, etc ) I think I know exactly what's happening.  E-mails, speeches from campaign workers, etc are saying how this is absolutely the most important election in history (just like the last one) and we need to step up our efforts, donations, etc even more to...guess...win the election?  No.  Build your guy up?  No.  Ensure a fair, healthy electoral environment?  Wrong again.  It's "even more to" protect America from enemy _________ insert candidate here.  That guy will obviously take your grandma's meds, increase your taxes, take away your Social Security, sleep with your wife, and generally just be a douchebag.  Each year it gets worse and worse through a combinition of increasing effort every election cycle, technology, and the way our political parties are set up (primaries favoring the more extreme candidates).  Each and every cycle you get more and more of a superheated environment where it becomes absolutly essential that your guy wins - otherwise you'll end up being a cutter.  I know this game, I've played this game - it's stupid.  However, these are the people feeding the press, which gets everyone riled up, and the campaign workers congratulate themselves and start the process all over again. 

3.) Watch out for the Big 12 North this year.  Nebraska is playing hard (although not good all the time), Iowa State can be a spoiler, and the Missouri/Kansas resurgance this year doesn't look like a fluke (Kansas lost a close one to South Florida, but despite what I said about the Big East for betting - South Florida might be the best team in that down conference)

4.)  I like the NFL instant replay system much better than college.  It seems like the booth is stepping in much more than is needed this year in college.  I kind of like having the NFL guys having to pick and choose their spots until 2 minutes out.

5.) When a Category 3 hurricane is bearing down on you take some vacation time.  Vegas is great this time of year.

6.) I'm not sure about this Fannie May/mortgage bailout thing.  It might have been necessary, but this is merely an extension of the massive increase in spending/entitlements that we've seen since 2000.  Ironically we're putting a mortgage on our future to bail out these companies and pay for other spending. 

7.) For my Air Force bros out there, there are much more important things than Blues Mondays.  However, I will say that as an Air Force if we don't get back to basics (i.e. not Cyber Command - that's NSA's job), really set priorities (especially for recapitalization across the fleet), and really look to get in the joint fight (or at least present our arguments that way) it won't matter what "distinctive uniform" we wear - we'll still suck.  All this searching for the right uniform combo, mission statements, etc, etc reeks of a service that doesn't respect itself, especially when compared to the other services.  Getting back to basics and really concentrating on mission accomplishment - espeically in the joint fight - will make all the uniform talk meaningless. 

8.) Sept 11 came and went and there is a greater and greater sense that this is passing into history - a memory rather than a close feeling that you might have experienced.  It's interesting.

9.) Sportscenter commercials are hilarious.  I can say a lot of bad things about ESPN, but they do that right.

10.) Never underestimate the power of simply being a good dude.  You might go through some tough times, but generally people remember you and take care of you.  I've been able to observe some people not getting taken care of and others that are.  The only difference I can see is attitude.  Like I say, it's not about what happens to you, but it's about how you react - I know some folks that react well and some that don't and I always marvel at the ones that react well to life - they have that inner strength that always amazes me. 



Until next time you'll have to go somewhere else to read about hooker and cocaine...


AirForceKush, aka, the Arctic Fox    

 

 



1 Comments

Hey Kish, just letting you know that I'm going to disable comments on this entry. It's attracting a LOT of spam comments and it's just easier for me to prevent all this spam than for me to go in and delete it. If you've got any heartburn with this, let me know (staceyfish AT gmail DOT com). Hope you're enjoying Guam :)